UK House Price Forecast for 2023-2024
Property prices will plunge by nearly five per cent next year - dropping the cost of an average home by around £30,000 to £266,000.
The prediction comes from economists at the Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBR), an independent agency that audits the financial impact of government policy.
The OBR says house prices will grow by just 0.9 per cent by the end of 2023, then fall by 4.7 per cent next year.
“Our forecast estimates house prices will grow by 0.9 per cent this year and fall by 4.7 per cent in 2024. This would be consistent with the price of the average UK home reaching a low of around £266,000 at its trough in the final quarter of 2024,” said the OBR.
Prices to take five years to return to 2022 peak
“From their high in the fourth quarter of 2022 to their low in the final quarter of 2024, nominal house prices are expected to decline by 7.6 per cent - 2.4 percentage points less than we expected in March.
“We expect house prices to recover slowly, reaching their late 2022 peak levels in the second half of 2027 and rising to 6.4 per cent above this level by the end of the forecast. The outlook for house prices is particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates and household income growth.”
Meanwhile, the latest house price data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) highlights that house prices fell 0.1 per cent from the year to the end of September.
The data pegs the cost of an average home at £291,000, which shows little change from a year ago but higher than the recent low of March 2023.
House prices where you are
House prices are in flux around the country, increasing in the Midlands and North but dropping in London and the South, while Yorkshire and The Humber remained the same as a year ago.
The most significant price increase is in the North East, where homes are 1.6 per cent more expensive than a year ago.
The most significant drop is -1.4 per cent in the South West.
Region | Yearly change |
North East | 1.6% |
North West | 0.6% |
West Midlands | 0.5% |
East Midlands | 0.4% |
Yorkshire and The Humber | 0.0% |
London | -1.1% |
South East | -1.4% |
East | -1.4% |
South West | -1.6% |
Source: ONS
Lenders expect a subdued market
Two of the biggest mortgage lenders, Halifax and Nationwide, have released pricing data from October.
Nationwide claims house prices have fallen 3.3 per cent since October 2022, leaving the average home priced at £259,423.
“The housing market is weak, with mortgage applications down 30 per cent. This is not surprising as affordability remains stretched,” said Robert Gardner, the building society’s chief economist. “Activity and house prices are likely to remain subdued despite signs that cost of living pressures are easing.”
The Halifax data echoes the figures from the Nationwide. The bank says house prices dropped 3.2 per cent over the year, taking the cost of an average home down to £281,974.
KIm KInnaird, director of Halifax Mortgages, said: “Sellers appear to be cautious, leading to a low supply of homes for sale. This is likely to have strengthened prices in the short term rather than prices driven by buyer demand, which remains weak overall.
“While many people will have seen their income grow through wage rises, higher interest rates and affordability pressures continue to challenge buyers.“
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